券商晨会精华 | AI大模型的竞争与迭代仍在持续 算力投资大概率维持较高强度

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the high point from October 8 last year, reaching a nearly four-year high, with a closing increase of 0.48% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 269.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking a return to above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days [1] - The sectors that performed well included non-ferrous metals, PEEK materials, CPO, and photolithography machines, while coal, banking, ports, and logistics sectors saw declines [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 3.62% [1] AI Computing Power Sector - CITIC Securities noted that the competition and iteration of AI large models are ongoing, indicating that investment in computing power is likely to remain strong [2] - Companies in the computing power chain have reported rapid growth, confirming the high prosperity of the AI-driven computing power industry [2] - Recommendations include focusing on North American computing power chain core targets with sustained high growth and low historical valuations, companies likely to benefit from external demand, and upstream segments facing shortages [2] - Attention is also drawn to the 1.6T optical module and CPO industry chain as GB300 begins mass shipments, and the introduction of new GPUs by NV in China as H20 supply recovers [2] Spandex Industry - Tianfeng Securities highlighted that the spandex supply in China is highly concentrated, with current prices at relatively low levels [3] - The industry is experiencing an average loss, with profitability at historical lows, and new capacity investments are being delayed or reduced [3] - Spandex demand has been growing rapidly, with consumption projected to increase from 121,000 tons in 2005 to 1,027,000 tons by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 11.9% from 2005 to 2024 [3] - Companies positioned on the left side of the cost curve are recommended for focus amid the "anti-involution" trend [3] Banking Sector - Huatai Securities pointed out that recent policies from the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and financial regulators aim to support personal consumption loans with a subsidy policy [4] - The annual subsidy rate is set at 1%, with the central and provincial finances covering 90% and 10% of the subsidy funds, respectively, which helps protect interest margins and stimulate credit issuance [4] - Major banks such as ICBC, ABC, CCB, and BOC have actively responded to the personal consumption loan subsidy policy since August [4] - The positive policy outlook suggests structural opportunities within the banking sector [4]