中信证券：制造强国 走出内卷

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that China's Producer Price Index (PPI) has been low in recent years, leading to an "involution" phenomenon in the manufacturing sector, with low-value-added industries experiencing higher levels of involution compared to medium and high-end industries [1] Group 1: Industry Analysis - The involution issues in low-value-added industries are primarily supply-side, while medium and high-end industries face more demand-side challenges [1] - It is anticipated that the balance in high-end industries will improve first, as the structural adjustments in China's industry may lead to a focus on quality enhancement in traditional industries and refinement in high-end sectors [1] Group 2: Policy and Future Outlook - Policies aimed at addressing involution, such as performance assessments, tax incentives, financing support, and market-oriented measures, are expected to drive upgrades in emerging industries like semiconductors, equipment manufacturing, robotics, the internet, and AI [1] - Historical experiences suggest that as China enters a phase of accelerated service demand release, the current market-driven approach to counter involution, combined with policies to boost domestic demand, is unlikely to have a significant negative impact on employment [1] - The current policy shift towards "counter involution + promoting consumption" is in progress, but further local implementation is needed; as these policies take effect, issues like low nominal GDP growth may see improvement [1]