美联储最新发声，下个月降息稳了？

Core Viewpoint - Recent speeches by Federal Reserve officials indicate a cooling of expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with officials emphasizing the need for more economic data before making decisions [1][2][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed the need to review more economic data before deciding on interest rate cuts, particularly focusing on inflation and employment metrics [1][4]. - Goolsbee highlighted that the impact of tariff policies on prices may not be as straightforward as previously thought, indicating potential structural changes in the economy [4][6]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that the labor market is close to full employment, suggesting that the Fed can afford to avoid hasty policy adjustments [6]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Wall Street traders have increasingly bet on a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with OIS contracts fully pricing in this expectation [7]. - Some market participants speculate on the possibility of a larger 50 basis point cut, driven by recent CPI data and comments from various financial institutions [8]. - Major banks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have differing views on the likelihood of a 25 versus 50 basis point cut, reflecting uncertainty in market expectations [8][9]. Group 3: Political Context - President Trump indicated he may announce the next Fed chairperson sooner than expected, narrowing down candidates to 3-4 individuals [10]. - Trump's comments reflect his ongoing pressure on the current Fed chair, Powell, regarding interest rates and their impact on the economy [10].