智通财经网·2025-08-14 01:28Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities expresses a strong positive outlook on the investment value of core battery assets in China, driven by short-term supply-demand improvements and long-term growth opportunities in commercial vehicles, AI data centers, and overseas markets [1] Group 1: Short-term Performance - In Q2 2025, battery prices stabilized due to continuous supply-demand improvements, with upstream raw material costs decreasing and operational rates increasing, leading to additional profit elasticity [1] - Companies like CATL and others have reported better-than-expected unit profitability for Q2 2025, attributed to high shipment growth and stable battery prices [1][2] - The average battery price remained stable in Q2 2025, with some models experiencing price increases, while lithium carbonate prices dropped from 74,000 CNY/ton at the end of March to 61,000 CNY/ton by the end of June [1] Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The core reason for stable battery prices is the improvement in supply-demand structure, with global lithium battery production expected to reach 986.5 GWh in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 48.3% [2] - Demand for power and energy storage batteries is driven by policies like vehicle trade-in incentives and changes in U.S. tariff policies, leading to significant growth in production [2] - On the supply side, capital expenditure has been concentrated among leading companies with strong cash flow and high operational rates, indicating a tightening supply environment [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The commercial vehicle market is expected to see explosive growth, with heavy-duty battery installations projected to reach approximately 31.7 GWh in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 230% [3] - The demand for energy storage batteries in AI data centers is anticipated to grow significantly, with global shipments expected to reach 300 GWh by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of over 80% from 2024 to 2030 [3] - Chinese companies are set to ramp up overseas production capacity in H2 2025, which may help distribute fixed costs and improve profitability [3] Group 4: Valuation Insights - The closing price of CATL's H-shares was approximately 40% higher than its A-shares as of August 8, 2025, indicating a potential uplift in the valuation of Chinese battery assets within the global pricing framework [4] - The premium on CATL's H-shares reflects global investor confidence in the growth potential of core battery assets, driven by strong profitability and increasing market share [4]