Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the long-term foreign currency issuer default rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating of Concord New Energy (00182.HK) from "BB-" to "B+", maintaining a stable outlook while withdrawing all ratings for commercial reasons. This downgrade reflects short-term pressures in the industry, but the report contains resilience signals worth noting [1]. Group 1: Resilience Factors - The interest coverage capability remains stable, with Fitch predicting that Concord's EBITDA interest coverage ratio will stay above 3.0 times under declining financing costs. This is more favorable compared to ReNew Energy, which has a higher rating but a lower coverage ratio [2]. - Concord's financial data shows a cash reserve of 2 billion yuan and short-term debt of 2.1 billion yuan, indicating a good match between available funds and current liabilities, thus confirming low liquidity risk [2]. - The sustainability of the project sale model is recognized, with Fitch noting that Concord's "develop-and-sell" business model is unaffected by the rating downgrade. The company is expected to continue selling 200-300 MW of assets annually, which will help improve overall profitability [3]. - The strategic reduction in capital expenditure is undervalued, with projected capital spending for 2025-2027 expected to decrease to 3.2-3.8 billion yuan from 5.3 billion yuan in 2024. This shift towards wind power projects aims to mitigate risks associated with solar projects [3]. Group 2: 2026 Breakthrough Point - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a turning point for both the industry supply-demand structure and the company's financial metrics, with several positive variables to watch [4]. - Twelve new ultra-high voltage transmission lines are set to be operational by 2025-2026, adding 80 million kilowatts of transmission capacity, which will alleviate the "consumption dilemma" in the "Three North" regions where Concord has significant wind power assets [4]. - There is a consensus that the utilization hours for wind and solar power generation will stabilize and recover, with expectations for a rebound in electricity prices due to improved supply-demand dynamics [5]. - The electricity pricing mechanism is transitioning from "disorderly decline" to a "stable range," with market price drops narrowing, which will benefit Concord as 75% of its electricity enjoys fixed pricing or long-term contracts [5][6]. Group 3: Risk and Opportunity Rebalancing - Market concerns about rising leverage and asset sale pace have been reflected in Concord's current valuation, which is at a near 10-year low with a dynamic P/E ratio of approximately 5.12 times and a P/B ratio of about 0.35 times [7]. - Recent insider buying by the chairman and independent directors signals confidence in the company's long-term prospects and valuation bottom [7]. - Fitch's report outlines clear improvement paths, with the EBITDA net leverage ratio needing to remain below 7.5 times and interest coverage above 3.0 times to trigger a rating upgrade [7]. - The operationalization of ultra-high voltage lines in 2026 is expected to enhance renewable energy utilization rates by 10%, while the core "develop-and-sell" strategy will continue to advance [8].
惠誉予以“B+”评级与展望稳定后，协合新能源2026年的转机何在？