美股轻松摘得年内第17个新高，大摩警告：三大隐患恐威胁牛市

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500 index, is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, strong second-quarter earnings, and robust economic performance, despite warnings of underlying risks from Morgan Stanley [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has achieved its 17th closing high of the year, reflecting a strong market performance [1]. - As of the latest close, the Dow Jones increased by 463.66 points (1.04%), the Nasdaq rose by 31.24 points (0.14%), and the S&P 500 gained 20.82 points (0.32%) [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 index has risen over 8% year-to-date, supported by better-than-expected earnings and ongoing interest in artificial intelligence [3]. - However, concerns are growing regarding the cooling labor market, with only 73,000 new non-farm jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 105,000 [4][5]. Group 3: Earnings Analysis - Despite a strong earnings season, with over 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations, only the technology, communication services, and financial sectors showed double-digit growth [6]. - The report highlights that while the "Magnificent Seven" companies are projected to see a 26% profit growth, the remaining 493 companies have shown almost no growth year-over-year [6]. Group 4: Inflation and Economic Risks - Morgan Stanley warns of potential "stagflation" risks, with rising inflation concerns due to ongoing trade tensions and increased tariffs, which could impact economic stability [6][7]. - The effective tariff rate is expected to rise to nearly 18%, almost double the previous level of 10%, raising concerns about future economic conditions [7]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Morgan Stanley advises investors to diversify their portfolios by increasing exposure to tangible assets such as gold, real estate investment trusts, and energy infrastructure [7]. - The firm also recommends investing in medium to long-term investment-grade bonds, international stocks including emerging markets, and alternative investments like hedge funds and private equity to mitigate risks [7].