下半年全球资产配置的主线——美国降息交易全攻略（建议收藏）

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in the US stock market were driven by employment data, initially causing a decline due to recession fears, followed by a rebound as the market anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to support economic growth [2][3] - Major US indices showed significant changes: S&P 500 dropped by 1.60% last week but rose by 1.47% this week, while the Nasdaq fell by 2.24% and then increased by 1.95% [3] - The concept of "rate cut trading" and "recession trading" reflects market reactions to economic data, with the former indicating expectations of lower interest rates and the latter signaling concerns about economic downturns [3] Group 2 - Historical analysis reveals that the US has experienced three significant rate cut cycles since 2000, each initiated during economic difficulties [6][8] - The first rate cut cycle (2001-2003) was marked by the burst of the internet bubble and subsequent economic challenges, leading to a total reduction of 550 basis points in the federal funds rate [14][12] - The second cycle (2007-2008) was triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis, with the rate cut reaching a historic low of 0.25% after a cumulative reduction of 500 basis points [18][16] - The third cycle (2019-2020) was characterized by a relatively stable economy, with rate cuts primarily aimed at preemptively addressing trade tensions and economic slowdown, culminating in a total reduction of 225 basis points [25][22] Group 3 - Asset performance during these rate cut cycles showed consistent trends: equity markets typically declined during the rate cuts due to underlying economic challenges, while fixed income and gold assets generally appreciated [30][31] - Current economic indicators suggest that the likelihood of a severe recession is lower compared to previous cycles, potentially reducing the risk of significant declines in equity markets during the upcoming rate cut [40][39] - The anticipated rate cuts may negatively impact the US dollar index, as increased money supply typically leads to currency depreciation [41]