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日本央行通胀担忧加剧 政策转向仍存变数
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-14 04:15

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate has declined, currently trading around 146, influenced by concerns over inflation and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy stance [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of Japan's June monetary policy meeting minutes revealed concerns about inflation, with many members believing the inflation outlook will exceed expectations, though uncertainty remains high [1] - The Bank of Japan raised its inflation outlook in July, but Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish stance has softened, indicating a potential slowdown in price increases starting next year [1] - The upcoming summary of opinions from the monetary policy committee for July may provide further assessment of the economic impact of the recently completed trade agreement between Japan and the U.S. [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY's intraday decline has found support in the 146.70-146.65 range, which includes the 200-period simple moving average and the 50% retracement level of the upward trend from July [1] - If this support level is decisively broken, it could trigger new bearish momentum for the USD/JPY [1]