美联储9月降息预期遭质疑

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential misjudgment in the market's overwhelming consensus regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, despite slightly lower-than-expected overall inflation data in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest dollar index price is reported at 97.75, with a decline of 0.05% from an opening price of 97.80 [1] - Core inflation data suggests that a rate cut is not guaranteed, indicating that the recent report may not be as optimistic as initially perceived [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - There is a prevailing market expectation for a rate cut in September, but the actual likelihood may be lower than anticipated [1] - If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates in September, it could lead to significant disappointment in the market [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - A bearish flag pattern support trendline is at risk of being broken, which could lead the dollar index to test the July low around 96.37 [1] - The current trendline is situated in the critical technical range of 97.98-98.09, with a potential drop below this level targeting 97.00 before reaching new lows in 2025 [1] - Resistance is observed at 98.95 for the dollar index [1]