Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-14 04:29Group 1 - The company expects a decline in net profit for 1H25, with a forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.65 billion yuan, down approximately 38% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 4.4 billion yuan, down 39% year-on-year, primarily due to falling coal prices and weak demand leading to a decrease in coal sales [1] - The market is experiencing a loose supply-demand situation, which has pressured coking coal prices. National coal production increased by 5.4% year-on-year in 1H25, while demand remained weak, with power generation down 2.4% and crude steel production down 3.0% year-on-year [1] - The company's coal sales declined due to weak demand, with total coal sales in 1H25 down 4.9% year-on-year to 64.56 million tons, despite a 6.5% increase in coal production [1] Group 2 - Since 3Q25, coal prices have rebounded due to increased demand for electricity during peak season, with the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal rising from 615 yuan/ton at the end of June to 694 yuan/ton as of August 13, indicating a potential recovery in company profits [2] - The expectation of further tightening supply in the domestic market may lead to a more balanced coal supply-demand situation, supporting a sustained increase in thermal coal prices and improving company profitability compared to 2Q25 [2] Group 3 - The company's earnings forecast and valuation remain largely unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 14.3x/12.2x for A-shares and 9.9x/8.1x for H-shares for 2025E/26E [3] - The target price for A/H shares is maintained at 16.00 yuan for A-shares and 10.00 HKD for H-shares, implying a 20% upside for A-shares and a 3% upside for H-shares based on the 2025E/26E P/E ratios [3]