汇添富基金胡慧颖：打造稳中求进的低波动境外美元固收策略

Core Viewpoint - The high interest rate environment created by the Federal Reserve has made offshore dollar bonds and related fixed-income products attractive, but the inherent volatility of dollar bonds should not be overlooked [1][2] Group 1: Volatility Sources - The main sources of volatility in the offshore dollar bond market stem from interest rates and credit spreads [2] - U.S. Treasury rates, particularly for medium to long-term bonds, exhibit more frequent and severe fluctuations compared to domestic RMB bond rates due to complex macroeconomic factors [2] - Credit spreads for dollar-denominated bonds can fluctuate independently of risk-free rates, driven by market sentiment, especially during periods of significant risk appetite changes [2][3] Group 2: Impact of Global Events - Global and local events, including unpredictable occurrences like the 2008 financial crisis and recent tariff policies, significantly impact the dollar bond market [3][4] - These events can lead to market sell-offs and re-evaluations of risk assets, causing notable volatility in the credit bond market, albeit less severe than in equity markets [3] Group 3: Regional and Individual Factors - Regional industry factors and geopolitical issues can lead to varying degrees of local market risk and volatility, as seen in the Chinese real estate sector's credit risks [4] - Individual credit events, such as the liquidity crisis of Credit Suisse, can trigger significant sell-offs in specific bond categories [4][5] Group 4: Strategies for Low-Volatility Products - To create competitive low-volatility offshore dollar products, strategies should include avoiding interest rate volatility by controlling duration and being cautious with short-term predictions [5][6] - Actively managing credit cycle-induced credit spread volatility is essential for pursuing excess returns, leveraging research capabilities to adjust credit exposure [5][6] - Rigorous credit selection and concentration management are necessary to mitigate individual credit event risks [5][6] Group 5: Dynamic Management of Global Events - A pragmatic approach to global event shocks involves accepting their unpredictability while dynamically managing risk exposure based on market conditions [6][7] - Adjusting high-volatility exposures and increasing cash positions during periods of market weakness can prepare for potential downturns [6][7] Group 6: Regional Event Management - Diversifying across regions and sectors while focusing on high-certainty, risk-reward favorable segments is crucial for managing regional event impacts [7] - The ability to actively manage volatility and risk will determine the potential for excess returns in the offshore dollar bond market [7]