新增玉米采购量有限 东北玉米价格承压下行几率较大

Core Viewpoint - The corn purchasing prices for deep processing enterprises in Northeast China have been rising, but the market outlook suggests a downward pressure on corn prices due to limited new corn procurement and the upcoming new harvest in mid-September [1][6]. Group 1: Price Trends - In early August, the average corn purchasing price for deep processing enterprises in Northeast China reached its highest point of the year at 2242 yuan/ton, which is slightly higher than July's average by 2 yuan/ton but lower than last year's August average by 31.5 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.39% [1]. - The overall corn prices have increased this year, putting significant pressure on deep processing enterprises [3]. Group 2: Purchasing Volume - From January to June, the monthly corn purchasing volume for Northeast deep processing enterprises showed a downward trend, with a rebound in July where the total purchasing volume reached 960,000 tons, a 16% increase month-on-month but a 7% decrease year-on-year [3]. - The total corn purchasing volume from January to July was approximately 8.83 million tons, representing a 24% decrease compared to the same period last year [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand - As of early August, the average corn inventory days for deep processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces was about 39 days, with limited new corn procurement expected before the new harvest [5]. - The operating load of major deep processing industries showed a declining trend in July, with a month-on-month decrease of 2 to 13 percentage points [5]. - Seasonal demand for corn products like starch and lysine is expected to recover slightly in late August due to reduced high temperatures and the back-to-school season, but new corn demand is unlikely to see significant increases [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market outlook indicates that from August to September, deep processing enterprises in Northeast China will primarily rely on contract grain and inventory, with limited new corn demand, leading to a high probability of downward pressure on corn prices [6]. - It is anticipated that the mainstream corn prices in Northeast China will decline by 50-100 yuan/ton from mid-August to mid-September due to the increasing supply from other regions and the narrowing sales window for old grain [6].