Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-08-14 05:16Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' economic outlook report predicts that by the end of this year, American consumers will feel the full impact of tariff policies, leading to significant political backlash from President Trump [2] - The effective tariff rate has surged from 3% at the beginning of the year to 18%, indicating a rapid acceleration in price transmission mechanisms as companies deplete their buffer inventories [2] - Economists warn that the current tariff increases are unprecedented since World War II, creating substantial uncertainty regarding cost transmission [2][3] Group 2 - The inflation transmission is not limited to goods but has also affected service sector input prices, with core service prices showing unexpected strength [3] - The "sticky price CPI" indicator compiled by the Cleveland Fed has reached an annualized growth rate of 3.8%, the highest since May 2024, significantly outpacing the more volatile food and energy prices [3] - Current tariff policies could potentially reduce U.S. GDP by 1% and increase inflation by 1% to 1.5%, with core CPI projected to reach 3.5% by year-end [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces dual pressures from rising inflation expectations and weak labor market signals, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining a wait-and-see approach until 2025 [4] - Retailers are adjusting pricing strategies in response to rising costs, and some companies are considering relocating production lines to avoid tariff risks [5] - The ongoing economic debate reflects a broader examination of the resilience of the U.S. economy amid global value chain restructuring and cost reallocation [5]