美国通胀黏性凸显政策困局 美联储降息博弈剑拔弩张

Core Economic Insights - The U.S. economy is at a crossroads with persistent core inflation and rising tariff costs on one side, and a weakening job market along with political pressure on monetary policy decisions on the other [1] - The latest data shows the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.1% year-on-year in July, exceeding market expectations of 3.0%, marking a five-month high [1] - The core CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.3% is the highest since January, breaking seasonal trends of lower inflation during mid-year [1] Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - Economists predict the core Producer Price Index (PPI), excluding food and energy, will rise to 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [2] - Research indicates that U.S. companies have been able to absorb about 64% of tariff costs as of June, but this is expected to drop to below 10% in the coming months, leading to a direct pass-through of costs to consumers [2] - The anticipated PPI for July is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year rise of 2.6%, significantly above market expectations [2] Federal Reserve's Policy Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is experiencing notable internal divisions regarding monetary policy, with differing views on the impact of tariffs on inflation and the state of the labor market [3] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expresses caution regarding the assumption that tariffs will not drive inflation, while Atlanta Fed President Bostic suggests the labor market is near full employment, allowing for a more measured approach to policy adjustments [3] - Both officials acknowledge that upcoming key data, particularly the August non-farm payroll report, will be crucial for September's policy decisions [3] Political Influence on Monetary Policy - Political pressure from the Trump administration complicates the Federal Reserve's independence, with public calls for significant interest rate cuts [4] - The Treasury Secretary has suggested a substantial rate cut of 50 basis points, contrasting with market expectations that have surged to a 96% probability of a rate cut in September [4] Long-term Structural Challenges - There are concerns regarding the effectiveness of monetary policy tools, with former New York Fed President Dudley questioning the impact of quantitative tightening on financial conditions [5] - Current officials are reflecting on the potential for interest rates to return to neutral levels if the economy stabilizes, but rising costs from global supply chain restructuring may permanently elevate inflation [5] Market Outlook - Analysts believe that regardless of whether the Fed opts for a 25 or 50 basis point cut in September, the emphasis will be on a gradual and data-dependent approach [7] - The futures market assigns a 69% probability to another rate cut in October, although this expectation may be overly optimistic [7] - Key indicators to watch include revisions to August non-farm employment data, trends in core service inflation, and the alleviation of global supply chain pressures [7]