广发期货：市场避险情绪有所缓解 金价呈现冲高回落走势

Macro News - The Bank of Japan is experiencing internal divisions, with some board members advocating for a shift away from the unclear "potential inflation" indicator to focus more on overall inflation and inflation expectations, potentially paving the way for an interest rate hike in October [1] Market Analysis - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict may soon conclude, which could benefit risk assets while negatively impacting safe-haven assets [2] - U.S. July core CPI inflation rate has increased due to import tariffs raising commodity prices, but the potential downward revision of non-farm employment numbers from May to July suggests a "stagflation" scenario, leading to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, October, and December [2] Gold Market Analysis - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index, while easing market risk sentiment ahead of the U.S.-Russia leaders' meeting has led to a high-low fluctuation in gold prices [3] - International gold prices closed at $3,355.88 per ounce, up 0.23%, with an intraday high of $3,370; domestic gold futures prices are experiencing frequent fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors [3] Investment Strategy - It is suggested to construct a bull spread using call options when prices pull back to key support levels, effectively lowering the cost of long positions [4] Silver Market Dynamics - A weak U.S. dollar is supporting silver prices, along with continued inflows into ETFs; however, weak industrial demand makes the market susceptible to fluctuations driven by investor sentiment [5] - International silver prices rose 1.57% to $38.502 per ounce, reaching a nearly three-week high, with domestic silver prices following the international trend [5] - In the short term, silver prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, but there is overall upward potential, suggesting the use of bull spread strategies to capture segment opportunities [5]