特朗普冲击下的全球化何去何从

Group 1 - The article discusses the shift from a "Spaghetti Bowl Globalization" to a more fragmented and protectionist global economy, influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade policies [1][17] - A significant trend is the "Bare Minimum" strategy adopted by multinational companies to minimize costs in response to the uncertainty created by U.S. trade policies, particularly under the Trump administration [2][3] - The average effective tariff rate for U.S. imports has exceeded 18%, the highest level since the mid-1930s, making domestic production more profitable while reducing foreign investments [4][12] Group 2 - Countries are also adopting a national-level "Bare Minimum" strategy, focusing on low-cost commitments and investments to gain negotiation leverage without significant economic costs [6][8] - The article highlights the challenges of isolating China through trade agreements, as many countries maintain strong trade ties with China despite U.S. efforts [10][13] - The potential for a fragmented global economy is emphasized, with two possible scenarios: a "relational spaghetti bowl" of interconnected agreements and a "multi-pot" globalization where economic zones become more isolated from each other [17][18]