供给端恢复需求依旧偏高 铁矿石或同步承压运行

Group 1 - Iron ore futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract reported at 772.5 yuan/ton, a drop of 3.26% [1] - On August 13, the national main port iron ore transactions totaled 842,000 tons, a decrease of 31.71% compared to the previous period; forward spot transactions were 335,000 tons [2] - As of August 13, the operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces was 83.75%, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.09%, indicating a stable demand for iron ore due to high production activity in the steel industry [2] Group 2 - On August 13, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 3,600 iron ore futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 400 receipts from the previous trading day [3] - According to Zijin Tianfeng Futures, global shipping volumes have declined again, with noticeable decreases in shipments from Australia and Brazil, while non-mainstream regions have stabilized; overall arrival volumes have increased [4] - The demand side shows a slight decline in iron water, with average daily iron water for 247 samples decreasing by 0.49 million tons to 2.4032 million tons; the average iron water for August is approximately 2.41 million tons [4] - Inventory levels have increased, with 45 port inventories rising by 620,000 tons, and total inventory showing a slight increase; rebar inventory has slightly risen, while hot-rolled coil inventory has also increased [4] - According to Zhongjin Wealth Futures, iron ore prices are expected to remain stable in the short term due to high steel mill profits and stable iron water demand, although potential pressure may arise if terminal demand for steel does not meet expectations during peak season [4]