【财经分析】新加坡上调2025年增长预测 但多重风险为下半年经济蒙上阴影

Economic Outlook - Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) raised the GDP growth forecast for 2025 from "0.0% to 2.0%" to "1.5% to 2.5%" due to unexpected resilience shown in the economy during the first half of the year [1] - The second quarter GDP grew by 4.4% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 4.3%, continuing the growth momentum from the first quarter's 4.1% [2] - The economy avoided technical recession with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.4% in Q2, reversing the 0.5% contraction in Q1 [2] Key Growth Drivers - The strong performance in the first half was primarily driven by trade-related sectors, including wholesale trade, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing [2] - Net exports significantly contributed to GDP growth, with export growth outpacing import growth [2] - The arts, entertainment, and recreation sector saw a remarkable 22.5% year-on-year growth in Q2, supported by government consumption vouchers [2] Risks and Challenges - Despite the upward revision of the annual forecast, MTI and several institutions expressed caution regarding the economic outlook for the second half, citing significant downside risks [3] - Three main risks identified include: 1. Escalation of tariff actions leading to increased economic uncertainty and reduced spending and hiring by businesses and households [4] 2. Financial market shocks due to tighter global financial conditions potentially causing disruptive capital flows [5] 3. Geopolitical tensions that could disrupt energy supply and exert new pressures on global energy prices [6] Labor Market and Consumer Sentiment - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is affecting the labor market, with leading indicators showing signs of economic activity slowing down [7] - A survey by Singapore's Ministry of Manpower indicated a decline in companies' willingness to hire and increase salaries over the next three months [7] - Despite challenges, there are still positive aspects, such as ongoing investments in AI-related semiconductors supporting the precision engineering cluster [7]