7月MPOB报告释放利多 8月棕榈油价格或延续涨势

Core Viewpoint - The July report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) indicates that the increase in palm oil supply outpaced demand, aligning with the trend of inventory accumulation, but the actual inventory was significantly lower than market expectations, leading to a bullish sentiment in the market [1][2][8] Supply and Demand Summary - In July, Malaysia's palm oil production reached 1.8124 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.09% [2] - Exports rose to 1.3091 million tons, up 3.82% month-on-month, while imports decreased to 61,000 tons, down 12.82% [2] - By the end of July, palm oil inventory increased to 2.1133 million tons, a month-on-month rise of 4.02% [2][8] - The actual production was lower than the market forecast of 1.83 million tons, providing price support [4] Market Dynamics - The increase in exports in July contributed positively to palm oil prices, although overall exports remain at a low level compared to the past five years [6] - Demand from the Indian market was a significant factor in boosting palm oil exports, despite a slight decrease in import volume to 850,000 tons [6] - The report indicated that the inventory increase was lower than expected due to higher-than-anticipated domestic consumption, which heightened market bullish sentiment [8] Price Outlook - Multiple positive factors are expected to drive palm oil prices higher in August, including the MPOB report, increased soybean oil export demand, and supportive policies in Indonesia [9] - The palm oil market is anticipated to maintain a dual increase in supply and demand, with seasonal production cycles continuing [9] - The domestic market may see improved demand due to upcoming festivals and the back-to-school season, despite some constraints from price differentials with soybean oil [9] - The expected price range for domestic palm oil in August is projected to be between 9,200 and 9,650 yuan per ton [9]