8月14日白银晚评：市场对降息预期仍存分歧 白银走势止跌微涨

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a nearly certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by recent economic data and comments from officials, which could impact silver prices and trading strategies [3][4]. Group 1: Market Data - As of August 14, the silver spot price is trading at $38.34 per ounce, with a daily high of $38.73 and a low of $38.20 [1]. - Other silver-related prices include silver T+D at 9,270 yuan per kilogram, paper silver at 8.837 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures at 9,286 yuan per kilogram [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market's expectation for a 99.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is based on the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which indicates a slowdown in inflation [3]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent suggests a more aggressive rate cut of 50 basis points may be necessary due to weak employment data, advocating for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points to reach a neutral rate around 3% [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is expected to provide guidance on potential rate cuts during the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, with market participants looking for clarity on the September meeting [4]. - The discussion around Powell's leadership and potential successors adds a political dimension to the Fed's future decisions, influencing market sentiment [4]. Group 4: Silver Trading Strategy - Technical analysis indicates that a pullback in silver prices may be due to profit-taking after an overbought condition, with key resistance at $38.40 and support around $38.10 [5]. - A significant drop below $38 could lead silver prices towards $37.00, while a breakthrough above $38.75 could target $39.00 and potentially challenge the highest levels since February 2012 [5].