美联储戴利：降息时机正在临近，但9月没必要降50基点

Group 1 - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, indicated that the timing for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may be approaching due to signs of a weakening U.S. labor market and a lack of persistent tariff-driven inflation [1][2] - Daly emphasized that she does not see the necessity for a significant rate cut of 50 basis points in September, contrasting with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's earlier comments suggesting such a cut might be possible [1][2] - Following the release of disappointing non-farm payroll data, Daly stated that the U.S. labor market can no longer be described as "robust," and she believes the current monetary policy stance may be too tight, suggesting a gradual shift towards a more neutral environment over the next year [2][3] Group 2 - Daly noted that if further data indicates rising inflation or a rebound in the labor market, the Federal Reserve may need to cut rates less than twice this year, but she believes the likelihood of needing more than two cuts is greater if the labor market remains weak without inflation spillover effects [3] - The Federal Reserve's previous forecast in June suggested two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, which still appears reasonable according to Daly [3] - Daly expressed that the timing of the next rate cut is less important than the Federal Reserve's readiness to adjust rates, indicating that each upcoming meeting presents an opportunity to consider rate changes [3]