【财经分析】全球石油市场供需进一步失衡 油价下行压力加大

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth while lowering the demand growth forecast, indicating a persistent risk of market imbalance [1][2]. Supply and Demand Summary - The IEA expects global oil supply to increase by an average of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025, up by 370,000 barrels from last month's estimate, and 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026, an increase of 620,000 barrels [2]. - Non-OPEC oil-producing countries are projected to be the main contributors to supply growth, contributing 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1 million barrels per day in 2026 [2]. - Global oil demand growth forecasts have been revised down by a total of 350,000 barrels per day since the beginning of the year, with expectations of 680,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 700,000 barrels per day in 2026, both down by 20,000 barrels from previous estimates [2]. Price Pressure Summary - Oil prices are under increasing downward pressure due to various factors, including geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown, with Brent crude futures hovering around $70 per barrel in July and dropping to approximately $67 per barrel following an August production agreement [3][4]. - Following the IEA's report on August 13, Brent crude futures for October delivery briefly fell to $65.93 per barrel [3]. OPEC Production Decisions - OPEC has been gradually increasing oil production since April, after multiple cuts to address falling prices, with a recent announcement to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [4]. - Analysts suggest that OPEC may need to pause production increases to avoid exacerbating supply surplus, especially as market conditions remain uncertain [4]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Analysts believe that the unpredictable U.S. trade policies and global geopolitical instability threaten both supply and demand in the oil market, making future predictions challenging [5]. - The upcoming U.S.-Russia presidential meeting is seen as a critical moment for the market, with potential implications for sanctions on Russian oil [5]. - The decline in global oil prices since spring has significantly impacted the profits of major oil companies, with ExxonMobil's net profit down 15%, Chevron down 40%, Shell down 23%, and TotalEnergies down 32% in the first half of the year [5][6].