我国天然气进口量价齐跌 原因为何、后市如何演绎

Core Insights - The natural gas market has remained relatively calm despite record-breaking high temperatures globally this summer, with China's natural gas imports showing a decline [1][2] - The demand for natural gas in China has varied across different applications, with a notable increase in urban gas consumption while power generation and industrial usage have weakened [2][4] - Domestic natural gas production has increased significantly, impacting the need for imports [5] Demand Analysis - Natural gas is primarily used in three sectors: power generation, industrial applications, and urban gas. This summer, power generation and industrial gas usage have decreased, while urban gas demand has increased [2][4] - Kpler's data indicates that average monthly natural gas power generation in China dropped from 60 billion cubic meters last year to 58 billion cubic meters this year, while industrial gas usage also saw a slight decline [2][3] - Urban gas demand has risen due to factors such as the "coal-to-gas" initiative and increased urbanization, leading to a higher number of residential and commercial users [4] Supply Dynamics - Domestic natural gas production has reached new highs due to increased exploration and development efforts by major oil companies, with a reported 5.8% year-on-year increase in production for the first half of the year [5] - The increase in domestic production has reduced the reliance on imported natural gas, with a projected decline of approximately 60,000 tons in LNG imports for July and August [5] Price Trends - The average import price of LNG in China has been on a downward trend, with a reported decrease of 6.7% year-on-year [1][2] - Recent adjustments in pipeline transportation prices across various regions are expected to lower costs for end-users, enhancing competitiveness for industrial users and reducing residential gas fees [7][8] Future Outlook - The natural gas market is expected to experience a supply increase and a demand decrease in August, influenced by global demand trends and domestic production stability [6] - Kpler's analysis suggests that temperature and price fluctuations will be critical in determining future natural gas demand in China [6]