“消费板块或迎来一场重大机遇”

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy is expected to create significant opportunities in the consumer sector, particularly benefiting "service-oriented consumption" [1][2]. Policy Impact on Consumer Sector - The new "national subsidy" for personal consumption loans aims to stimulate the consumption market, which has been underperforming, with the consumer index dropping nearly 60% from its peak in 2021 to its lowest point in 2024 [2]. - Fund companies believe that the subsidy policy will enhance consumer demand and support economic growth by reducing credit costs and stimulating both supply and demand [4][6]. Short-term and Long-term Prospects - The subsidy policy is expected to have a short-term impact on demand, particularly in sectors like automotive and home appliances, while also fostering long-term growth in emerging consumption areas such as education and tourism [9][8]. - The consumer sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with a significant opportunity for recovery as the market sentiment has reached a low point [11]. Structural Opportunities - Despite the overall market rebound, the consumer sector has lagged, with a year-to-date decline of 2.11% in the consumer index as of August 14 [11]. - The current valuation of the consumer sector has dropped to below 20 times earnings, indicating potential for recovery as market perceptions may be overly pessimistic [11]. Broader Economic Implications - The subsidy policy is not only focused on consumption but also aims to rebalance the entire domestic demand chain, potentially benefiting banks and technology service providers as well [14]. - Banks are expected to benefit from increased retail lending demand and reduced credit risk due to the subsidy policy, which may lead to a positive cycle of growth in loan volumes and asset quality [14][15].