政策和自律双轮驱动 化工行业周期拐点临近

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is transitioning from a focus on market share to profitability as production expansion nears its end and policies are gradually implemented, indicating a potential new cycle for the industry [1][4]. Industry Challenges - Since 2022, the chemical industry has faced a supply-demand mismatch leading to declining prices and increased competition, resulting in many companies experiencing revenue growth without profit [1][2]. - Despite domestic demand recovery from various policies, intensified competition on the supply side and limited overseas demand have exacerbated low product prices and capacity utilization rates, keeping overall profit levels low [1][2]. Historical Context and Trends - The chemical industry has experienced cyclical fluctuations, with significant recoveries driven by demand stimulus and supply-side structural reforms in the past [2]. - Currently, the industry is at a bottom position, with high concentration in most sub-industries limiting further optimization through increased concentration [2][3]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - The primary issue in the domestic chemical industry is the supply-demand mismatch, which needs to be addressed to help the industry recover from its bottom state [3]. - The "new pricing method" aims to eliminate long-term losses across the industry, which could subsequently raise the profit bottom line for leading companies [3]. Self-Regulation and Policy Collaboration - The current phase of the chemical industry's anti-involution process is at the initial stage of policy and industry assessment, with industry associations promoting self-regulation among companies [3][5]. - Historical experiences suggest that self-regulation may not be sustainable without strong policy support, as temporary production cuts can lead to a rebound in operating rates, returning to a supply surplus situation [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - The polyester filament industry is in a period of slow capacity growth, with profitability improvements driven by policies to eliminate about 10% of outdated capacity and joint production cuts by leading companies [4]. - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen no new capacity in the past five years, maintaining a stable supply-demand balance, with carbon emission control policies acting as a driving factor [4]. Future Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle focused on profitability through the elimination of outdated capacity and enhanced industry self-regulation [4][5]. - The industry is currently in a policy vacuum, but as more policies are implemented, the issues of internal competition are likely to improve [5]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in leading companies within large sectors like petrochemicals and coal chemicals, as well as in sub-industries nearing a cyclical turning point, such as polyester filament [5].