“保持定力+优化结构”私募配置逻辑嬗变

Market Overview - The A-share market is showing strong momentum with increasing transaction volumes and financing balances returning to historical highs, indicating a significant influx of capital [1][2] - Major stock indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, have reached new highs since 2025, reflecting a robust market trend [1] Investment Logic Shift - The market is transitioning from liquidity-driven growth to a fundamental-driven approach, suggesting a more stable and sustainable phase ahead [1] - Private equity firms are optimistic about the market's mid-term prospects, citing the accumulation of positive factors and the potential for further upward movement in market levels [1][2] Factors Supporting Market Trends - Four key dimensions are identified as supporting the market's medium to long-term positive performance: easing external disturbances, potential resonance between U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and domestic policies, China's competitive edge in AI and high-end manufacturing, and continued inflow of resident funds into the stock market through institutional products [2] - The current market trend is characterized by a slow upward movement, distinguishing it from previous impulsive market behaviors [2] Positioning and Strategy - High allocation strategies are prevalent among private equity firms, with many maintaining a high level of investment positions and viewing potential short-term corrections as buying opportunities [3] - A consensus among private equity firms emphasizes maintaining stability in portfolios while optimizing structure, with varying tactical approaches based on risk tolerance [3][4] Sector Focus - Private equity firms are focusing on three main structural opportunities: high-growth technology sectors, consumer and pharmaceutical industries, and undervalued recovery stocks [4][5] - The technology sector, particularly AI, is receiving heightened attention, with firms believing that the market is still underestimating the impact of the AI technology revolution [4] Value Recovery - There is a growing interest in low-valued recovery stocks, with firms suggesting that traditional industries with solid fundamentals and reasonable valuations may experience value reassessment as the economy recovers [5] - The market is experiencing structural differentiation, and finding a balance between the technological revolution and the value reassessment of traditional sectors is becoming crucial for private equity firms [5]