开源证券金益腾： 政策和自律双轮驱动 化工行业周期拐点临近

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is transitioning from a focus on market share to profitability, indicating a potential new cycle as production expansion comes to an end and policies are implemented [1][7]. Industry Challenges - Since 2022, the chemical industry has faced price declines and increased competition, leading to many companies experiencing revenue growth without profit [2]. - Despite domestic demand stabilization from various policies, intensified competition and limited overseas demand have exacerbated price weakness and low capacity utilization, resulting in overall low profit levels [2][3]. Current Industry Position - The bottom position of the industry is considered relatively certain, with high concentration in most sub-industries limiting further optimization through concentration increases [3]. - The driving force of the chemical market is shifting from demand stimulation to supply-side reform, necessitating breakthroughs from the supply side to improve the supply-demand structure and promote high-quality development [3][6]. Self-Regulation and Policy Coordination - The current phase of the chemical industry's anti-involution process is at the initial stage of policy and industry assessment, with industry associations promoting self-regulation among companies [4]. - Historical experiences suggest that self-regulation effects are often short-lived, and temporary production cuts can lead to a rebound in operating rates, returning to a state of oversupply [4]. Specific Industry Insights - The polyester filament industry is entering a period of slow capacity growth, with profitability improvements driven by policies to eliminate about 10% of outdated capacity and joint production cuts by leading companies [5][6]. - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen no new capacity in the past five years, maintaining a stable supply-demand balance, with strict carbon emission policies curbing new capacity as a driving factor [5]. Future Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle as it shifts focus from market share to profit, with measures such as eliminating outdated capacity and enhancing industry self-regulation [7]. - The importance of pricing power is emphasized, as high concentration in many sub-industries means that if leading companies cease harmful competition, prices can stabilize and potentially gain global pricing power [7]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in major sectors like petrochemicals and coal chemicals, with a focus on sub-industries nearing cyclical turning points, such as polyester filament [7][8].