基本面利空逐渐占据上风 原油价格中长期或承压

Group 1 - International crude oil prices have shown a downward trend since August, with WTI and Brent crude oil futures dropping over 10% from their highs at the end of July [1][2] - Domestic crude oil futures have also fallen below the important threshold of 500 yuan per barrel, with a drop of 10.43% from the July 31 high [2][4] - The decline in prices is attributed to expectations of oversupply and a decrease in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][3] Group 2 - The market has seen a significant reduction in long positions, with WTI non-commercial net long positions decreasing by 14,194 contracts and Brent net long positions down by 19,559 contracts [3][4] - Analysts indicate that the ongoing increase in oil production by OPEC+ has exceeded market expectations, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [2][4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth to 2.28 million barrels per day, while the demand growth forecast remains relatively unchanged, leading to an expected oversupply of 1.64 million barrels per day [4][6] Group 3 - Seasonal demand for oil is expected to weaken as the summer consumption peak approaches its end, with overall demand growth projected to be less than 1 million barrels per day for the year [6][7] - The market is likely to seek a temporary balance between long-term supply pressures and short-term demand support, but the overall trend for oil prices is expected to be downward [6][7] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may still influence oil prices in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains bearish due to ongoing OPEC+ production increases and slow global economic growth [7][8]