开源证券金益腾：政策和自律双轮驱动 化工行业周期拐点临近

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is transitioning from a focus on market share to profitability, indicating a potential new cycle as production expansion comes to an end and policies are gradually implemented [1][7]. Industry Challenges - Since 2022, the chemical industry has faced price declines and increased competition, leading to many companies experiencing revenue growth without profit [2]. - Despite domestic demand stabilization from various policies, supply-side competition has intensified, resulting in lower product prices and utilization rates, which has kept overall profit levels low [2][3]. Current Industry Position - The bottom position of the industry appears to be well-defined, with high concentration in most sub-industries limiting further optimization through concentration increases [3]. - The driving force of the chemical market is shifting from demand stimulation to supply-side reform, necessitating a focus on optimizing supply-demand dynamics for high-quality development [3]. Self-Regulation and Policy Coordination - The current phase of the chemical industry's anti-involution process is at the initial stage of policy and industry assessment, with industry associations promoting self-regulation among companies [4]. - Historical experiences suggest that self-regulation effects are often short-lived, and temporary production cuts can lead to a rebound in operating rates, returning to a supply surplus situation [4]. Specific Industry Insights - The polyester filament industry is entering a period of slow capacity growth, with profitability improvements driven by policies to eliminate about 10% of outdated capacity and joint production cuts by leading companies [5]. - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen no new capacity in the past five years, maintaining a stable supply-demand balance, with strict carbon emission policies curbing new capacity as a driving factor [5][6]. Future Industry Outlook - The anti-involution direction for the chemical industry is clear, with a shift towards profitability through capacity elimination and enhanced self-regulation [7]. - The industry is currently in a policy vacuum, but as more policies are implemented, the issues of internal competition are expected to improve [7]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in major sectors like petrochemicals and coal chemicals, with a focus on leading companies in these areas [7][8].