Core Viewpoint - The domestic dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market has experienced a price increase due to supply tightness and rising demand from lithium battery electrolyte, but many companies are still facing significant losses, indicating a need for industry consolidation [1][6]. Market Dynamics - Since July, the DMC market has seen prices rise from 3,800 yuan to 4,200 yuan per ton, an increase of approximately 11% [1]. - The DMC industry is characterized by a high level of competition, with 33 companies currently involved, leading to a crowded market [3]. - The compound annual growth rate of DMC production capacity in China over the past four years is 28%, with total capacity expected to reach 3.565 million tons by the end of 2024 [2]. Production and Capacity - The largest DMC production facility is operated by Hualu Hengsheng with an annual capacity of 600,000 tons, followed by Lihua Yiyuan at 320,000 tons and Hengli Petrochemical at 300,000 tons [4]. - Several companies are currently constructing new DMC facilities, with a total planned capacity of 650,000 tons expected to come online within the year [4][5]. Financial Performance - The DMC market has seen a significant decline in profitability, with average prices dropping from 13,000 yuan in November 2020 to an expected average of 3,780 yuan in 2024, a decrease of 54% over three years [6]. - The profit margins for various production methods have been severely impacted, with the PO ester exchange method experiencing a profit decline of 103% from 2021 to 2024, resulting in losses [6][7]. Future Outlook - The DMC market is expected to face continued oversupply and intensified price competition, leading to reduced operational capacity among many companies [7]. - The "anti-involution" policy may support the exit of outdated production capacities, potentially leading to a more balanced supply-demand structure in the future [7].
规划产能规模惊人 赛道拥挤的碳酸二甲酯行业亟待整合