智通财经网·2025-08-14 22:43Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the "anti-involution" efforts in the express delivery industry will exceed expectations by 2025, leading to a reduction in short-term competitive pressure and ensuring healthy competition in the medium to long term. The recommendation is to maintain an "overweight" rating on express delivery stocks, as the profitability of e-commerce express delivery is expected to recover in the second half of the year, with future profitability elasticity depending on the sustainability of price increases [1]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The "anti-involution" measures initiated by the postal regulatory authority in April 2021 effectively curbed irrational price wars and ensured network stability, leading to a recovery in market share for leading companies and an increase in single-ticket revenue [2][3]. - The express delivery sector has faced significant pressure from irrational pricing strategies since late 2019, which intensified with the entry of new players in 2020, resulting in a prolonged price war that adversely affected the industry's performance and valuation [2]. - The postal regulatory authority's actions, including the prohibition of below-cost pricing and the establishment of minimum service prices, have been pivotal in stabilizing the market and restoring profitability for leading companies [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - By 2025, the intensity of "anti-involution" efforts is expected to increase, with a notable rise in the focus on leading companies' market shares in the second half of 2024. However, the first quarter of 2025 may see a year-on-year decline in industry profit margins [4]. - The regulatory authority's ongoing commitment to opposing "involution-style" competition and ensuring stable operations at the grassroots level is crucial for the future sustainability of price increases and profitability elasticity in the express delivery sector [5]. - The anticipated recovery in profitability for e-commerce express delivery in the second half of 2025 will depend significantly on the regulatory environment and the ability to maintain price increases without adversely affecting small package volumes [5].