聚碳酸酯行业破局“内卷”剑指高端 要从“价格竞争”到“价值竞争”

Core Viewpoint - The polycarbonate (PC) industry is at a critical stage of "climbing over hurdles," emphasizing the need for high-end, differentiated, and green development to transition from price competition to value competition [1][2]. Industry Overview - China's PC production capacity has significantly increased from 1.66 million tons in 2019 to 3.81 million tons in 2024, accounting for 48% of global capacity, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.5% over five years [1]. - The apparent demand for PC in 2024 is projected to reach 3.6 million tons, approximately half of the global demand [1]. Structural Challenges - The PC industry faces structural contradictions, with low-end capacity surplus and insufficient high-end supply. The self-sufficiency rate for general-grade products exceeds 100%, while the domestic production rate for high-end grades like medical and optical grades is below 30% [2]. - Since 2021, China's PC production capacity has surpassed apparent consumption, leading to an average capacity utilization rate of only 65% over the past five years [2]. Financial Performance - The average gross profit margin for the industry fell to negative values in the first quarter of 2025, indicating challenges from price competition and cost pressures [2]. Growth Opportunities - The decline in PC prices and its superior performance have spurred rapid growth in emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and high-end medical applications, presenting new growth opportunities for the PC industry [2]. Strategic Recommendations - The industry should focus on technological advancements to achieve product high-endization, aiming to increase the proportion of high-end grades to over 40% [2]. - Embracing green transformation in line with the "dual carbon" goals by developing recycling systems for waste PC and bio-based PC is essential for promoting a circular economy [2]. - Collaborative efforts along the industrial chain are necessary to mitigate risks, with a focus on establishing application standards in high-end fields like aerospace and neurosurgery [2].