国金证券：给予东方电缆买入评级

Core Viewpoint - The report by Guojin Securities indicates that despite a decline in net profit, Oriental Cable is expected to accelerate its performance in the second half of the year due to high inventory and contract liabilities [1]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Oriental Cable achieved revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 473 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.6% [2]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 17.1%, and a net profit of 192 million yuan, down 49.6% year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The revenue from the power engineering and equipment cable business reached 2.2 billion yuan in the first half, up 25% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 10.8%. Q2 revenue was 1.3 billion yuan, an 11% increase year-on-year and a 48% increase quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Revenue from submarine cables and high-voltage cables was 2 billion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 25%. Q2 revenue was 760 million yuan, a 3% increase year-on-year but a 36% decrease quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The marine equipment and engineering operation segment generated approximately 275 million yuan, down 45% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29%. Q2 revenue was 210 million yuan, a 223% increase quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The increase in inventory and contract liabilities is significant, with contract liabilities reaching 1.67 billion yuan, up 473% year-on-year, and inventory at 3.13 billion yuan, up 67% year-on-year [3]. Order Backlog and Future Prospects - As of August 12, 2025, the company had an order backlog of 19.6 billion yuan, a 4% increase from April 21. This includes approximately 11 billion yuan for submarine and high-voltage cables, 5 billion yuan for power engineering and equipment cables, and 3.6 billion yuan for marine equipment and engineering operations [4]. - The company is optimistic about accelerating order acquisition in the second half of the year, particularly with upcoming tenders for the Zhejiang deep-sea demonstration project and ongoing tenders for the UK AR7 offshore wind project [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Based on the company's half-year report and the latest industry assessments, the forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.72 billion, 2.24 billion, and 2.65 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 21, 16, and 13 times, respectively. The company maintains a "buy" rating [5].