PPI增速超预期击退9月降息50基点押注 美债收益率全面回升

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent surge in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) has led to a significant shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly diminishing the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September [1][2]. Group 2 - The U.S. PPI for July increased by 0.9% month-on-month, marking the highest growth since June 2022, and significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.2% [1]. - Year-on-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, also surpassing the anticipated 2.5% [1]. - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, both figures well above market forecasts of 0.2% and 2.9% respectively [1]. Group 3 - Following the PPI report, inflation expectations in the market surged, leading traders to reduce bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5.23 basis points to 4.2849%, while the 2-year yield increased by 5.79 basis points to 3.7324% [1]. - The report suggests that U.S. companies are actively adjusting prices to offset costs associated with higher tariffs, despite soft demand in the first half of the year [1][2]. Group 4 - Economists predict that the rising costs of imported goods due to tariffs will increasingly pressure profit margins and may lead to a slight increase in inflation rates by the second half of 2025 [2]. - The latest data from CME indicates a 7.9% probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in September, with a 92.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 0% chance of a 50 basis point cut [2].