下半年债市有哪些政策机会值得关注？

Fiscal Policy - The government's net financing from bonds has reached 9.5 trillion, surpassing any year except 2023 and 2024, with an additional 4-5 trillion expected to be issued this year [1] - The issuance of government bonds is expected to accelerate, while special bonds will maintain a steady issuance pace similar to previous years [1] - There is a likelihood of additional government bond issuance in the second half of the year to support economic resilience, potentially through special treasury bonds or increased deficits [1] Monetary Policy - A prediction of stock liquidity easing in the second half of the year, but the overall impact may not be as significant as previously anticipated due to financial stability constraints [1] - The central bank is expected to restart bond purchases in the third quarter, primarily due to a lack of long-term liquidity tools [2] - The bank's net interest margin is a significant factor limiting the extent of interest rate reductions, with a focus on the sustainability of banks' profitability [2] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is currently in a state of oscillation, with strategies suggested for gradually increasing long-term bond holdings at high yield points and reducing them at low yield points [3] - The yield curve is at a relatively high level compared to the year, indicating a neutral to low historical position, with financial stability being a key constraint on monetary policy [2][3]