Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a decline in futures prices while spot prices remain under pressure, indicating a potential shift in supply and demand dynamics [1] Supply - Iron element production from January to July increased by 18 million tons, a growth rate of 3.1%. In August, production rebounded compared to July, primarily due to a significant increase in scrap steel consumption [3] - Current pig iron production is stable at 2.41 million tons, with daily scrap consumption at 558,000 tons, reflecting a 0.6% increase month-on-month [3] - The total production of the five major steel products increased by 24,000 tons to 8.716 million tons, with rebar production decreasing by 7,000 tons to 2.205 million tons and hot-rolled coil production increasing by 7,000 tons to 3.156 million tons [3] Demand - From January to July, the apparent demand for the five major steel products remained flat year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.2%, while production fell by 1.3% [4] - Domestic demand decreased year-on-year, while external demand increased significantly, with both direct and indirect steel exports rising [4] - The apparent demand for rebar decreased, negatively impacting overall demand, with total apparent demand for the five major products down by 150,000 tons to 8.31 million tons [4] Inventory - This week saw a significant increase in inventory, primarily driven by traders, while steel mill inventory saw a modest rise. The total inventory of the five major products increased by 406,000 tons to 14.16 million tons [5] - Rebar inventory rose by 305,000 tons to 5.872 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory increased slightly by 8,400 tons to 3.575 million tons [5] Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal production continues to recover, while iron ore inventories at ports have slightly increased. The supply is expected to decline seasonally, but steel mill production remains high, limiting inventory accumulation pressure [2] - Costs are rising, but steel prices are also increasing, leading to improved profitability for steel mills, with profits ranked from high to low as: billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled coil [2] Market Outlook - The black metal market continues to show weakness, with technical indicators suggesting a double top formation. Despite stable high production levels, significant inventory accumulation is observed [6] - The current high production levels at steel mills and seasonal demand decline in August are expected to lead to increased inventory, although the pressure on steel mills remains limited [6] - Short-term expectations indicate that production limits may alleviate the pressure from high production and trader inventories, with prices anticipated to remain stable at high levels until demand clarity emerges [6]
钢材：钢厂库存累库不多 限产在即 钢价有支撑
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-15 02:12