国债期货：股债跷跷板继续施压长债 期债转弱

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.36%, marking a new low in over four months; the 10-year main contract fell 0.12%, the 5-year contract dropped 0.08%, and the 2-year contract decreased by 0.02% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds generally rose, with the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" yield increasing by 1.5 basis points, the 10-year government development bond "25 Government Development 10" yield up by 2 basis points, and the 10-year government bond "25 Coupon Government Bond 11" yield rising by 1.4 basis points [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 128.7 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 14, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, and the full bid amount was accepted [2] - On the same day, 160.7 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market remained stable, but the degree of easing showed slight contraction, with non-bank quotes slightly rising [2] Economic Fundamentals - As of the end of July, China's broad money supply (M2) stood at 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year; narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, up by 5.6%; and the currency in circulation (M0) reached 13.28 trillion yuan, increasing by 11.8% [3] - In the first seven months, net cash injection was 465.1 billion yuan, with new RMB loans increasing by 12.87 trillion yuan and RMB deposits rising by 18.44 trillion yuan [3] - The total social financing scale increased by 23.99 trillion yuan in the first seven months, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3] Operational Suggestions - The bond market continues to be pressured by the equity market, with market sentiment not yet recovering [4] - Despite a generally loose liquidity environment, the bond market has not reached a downward trend phase, with the 10-year government bond expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.75% [4] - It is suggested to maintain a short-term wait-and-see approach, focusing on tax period liquidity and new bond issuance pricing [4]