Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the revenue forecasts for Samsonite (01910) for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to $3.42 billion and $3.65 billion respectively, due to weaker sales momentum and unfavorable operating leverage [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Samsonite reported Q2 2025 net sales of $865 million, a year-on-year decline of 5.8% when adjusted for fixed exchange rates [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $141 million, with an EBITDA margin of 16.3%, down from 19.0% in the same period last year [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was $71.4 million, compared to $86.9 million in the previous year [2] Group 2: Management Insights - Management noted that sales grew significantly during the post-pandemic recovery from 2021 to 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 37%, outpacing the industry average growth rate of 4.5% [3] - For 2024 to 2025, sales performance is expected to normalize, with long-term global passenger travel growth projected at around 4% from 2024 to 2029 [3] - Sales outlook for Q3 2025 is expected to be similar to Q2 2025, with a slight low single-digit decline in sales [3] Group 3: Profitability Outlook - CICC expects the gross margin for 2025 to be between 59% and 59.5%, impacted by U.S. tariffs on imports from major production countries [4] - The company plans to mitigate margin pressure through early inventory procurement in H1 2025 and price increases in H2 2025 [4] - The decline in high-margin sales from Asia further pressures the gross margin, although this is partially offset by an increase in direct sales proportion [4]
中金：维持新秀丽(01910)跑赢行业评级 目标价20港元