风电火电景气提升 聚变储能蓄势待发 | 投研报告

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huayuan Securities indicates that while photovoltaic (PV) technology has been advancing rapidly, the relative advantages of wind power are becoming more pronounced due to the increasing system costs associated with renewable energy generation [1][2]. Group 1: Cost Comparison - The market has long believed that the comprehensive cost of PV will remain lower than that of wind power due to continuous improvements in PV technology and efficiency [1][2]. - However, when considering the overall social costs from the perspective of end consumers, wind power shows a significant advantage in system costs compared to PV [2]. Group 2: System Costs - The increasing share of renewable energy generation has led to rising system costs, which in some regions have exceeded the actual generation costs [1][2]. - The primary component of system costs is peak shaving costs, which include reasonable profits for flexible coal power units and compensations for frequent starts and reduced operating hours [2]. Group 3: Output Characteristics - The main issue with PV output is its mismatch with electricity demand timing, as peak demand occurs in the evening while PV output is near zero [3]. - In contrast, wind power's output is less predictable and can fluctuate significantly, but as the share of renewables increases, the collective output from multiple wind farms can smooth out total power output, reducing unpredictability and volatility [3].