新强联(300850)：风机大型化赋能 国产轴承迎黄金期

Core Viewpoint - The company is rated "Buy" with a target price of 42.0 CNY, corresponding to a 23x P/E for 2025, indicating optimism about its growth potential in the wind power bearing market [1] Industry Outlook - The wind power industry is expected to experience structural opportunities during the 14th Five-Year Plan, driven by the acceleration of domestic power marketization and the introduction of policy documents like "Document 136" [2] - The forecast for domestic wind power installations is 110 GW, 130 GW, and 140 GW for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 18%, and 8% [2] - The domestic market for bearings in wind turbines is estimated to be around 12 billion CNY, with each turbine requiring bearings valued at approximately 1 million CNY [2] Company Growth Potential - The company is projected to capture over 35% of the market share in the main bearing segment, with a market size of 61.7 billion CNY for pitch and yaw bearings, 17.5 billion CNY for TRB main shaft bearings, and 37.6 billion CNY for gearbox bearings by 2025 [3] - The company anticipates a recovery in gross margins due to the increasing sales of high-margin TRB main shaft bearings, which are expected to return to levels comparable to the 2021 industry cycle by 1H25 [3] - The company aims to achieve a market share of approximately 20% in gearbox bearings as production capacity comes online in 1H25, contributing to its third growth curve [4] Market Positioning - The company holds a competitive advantage in the TRB main shaft bearing segment due to its early entry in technology, capacity preparation, and customer acquisition, with expectations of significant revenue growth in 2025-26 [3] - The company is also positioned to benefit from increased demand for shield tunneling machines driven by downstream hydropower projects, potentially expanding the overall market size by 6-12% [5] Financial Projections - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 696 million CNY, 842 million CNY, and 1.03 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 965%, 21%, and 22% respectively [6] - The estimated EPS for the same period is 1.83 CNY, 2.21 CNY, and 2.70 CNY per share [6]