Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-08-15 02:54Core Viewpoint - The domestic polyether polyol export maintains a high growth rate in the first half of 2025, with significant year-on-year increases projected for both 2024 and 2025 [1][2]. Export Data Summary - In the first half of 2024, the export volume of polyether polyol is expected to be 1.1014 million tons, while in 2025, it is projected to reach 1.3154 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.43% [1][2]. - The export volume in June 2025 is anticipated to be 219,600 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.19% [1][2]. - Monthly export growth rates for the first half of 2023 are recorded at 21.71%, 28.80%, 11.06%, 14.15%, 32.10%, and 14.19% respectively [1][2]. Price Trends Summary - The average price of domestic soft foam polyether in 2023 is 9,867 yuan/ton, dropping to 8,911 yuan/ton in 2024, and further declining to 8,190 yuan/ton and 7,366 yuan/ton in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 respectively [3]. - Prices began to rebound in Q3 2025, with July averaging 7,617 yuan/ton and August (as of August 13) reaching 8,306 yuan/ton, marking increases of 3.41% and 12.75% from Q2 2025 [3]. - The average price of POP polyether in 2024 is 9,987 yuan/ton, decreasing to 9,341 yuan/ton in Q1 2025 and 8,556 yuan/ton in Q2 2025, with July and August 2025 averaging 8,475 yuan/ton and 8,547 yuan/ton respectively, indicating price stabilization [3]. Market Dynamics Summary - There has been a notable exit of overseas production capacity, with several foreign companies halting operations due to high operational costs and unexpected incidents [4]. - Key closures include Dow Chemical's cessation of a 50,000 tons/year capacity in Argentina and the joint decision by LyondellBasell and Covestro to close a plant in the Netherlands, which is expected to significantly impact local downstream polyether supply [4]. - In the first half of 2025, China exported 135,000 tons to Turkey, 135,000 tons to India, 117,000 tons to Vietnam, 60,000 tons to the UAE, and 52,000 tons to Russia, with significant year-on-year growth observed in exports to India (59.00%) and Vietnam (55.04%) [4]. Investment Outlook - The demand for the polyether industry is strongly supported by overseas demand, and domestic companies are increasingly competitive against foreign firms [4]. - Key investment targets include Longhua New Materials, a significant domestic polyether producer, and Wanhua Chemical, the largest domestic producer of soft and hard foam polyether [5].