欧美进口需求前置，国内市场维稳

Core Insights - The tire industry's upstream raw material prices showed significant year-on-year declines in July 2025, with specific materials experiencing varied price movements [1][2]. Raw Material Price Summary - In July 2025, the average price of butadiene was 9116.30 CNY/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.87% [1][2]. - The average price of natural rubber was 1770.65 USD/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.96% and a year-on-year increase of 4.46% [1][2]. - The average price of styrene-butadiene rubber was 11964.13 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.77% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.65% [1][2]. - The average price of carbon black was 6267.74 CNY/ton, showing a month-on-month decrease of 2.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.25% [1][2]. - The average price of nylon tire cord fabric was 17971.40 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.31% [1][2]. Natural Rubber Supply and Demand - In June 2025, the production of natural rubber in ANRPC member countries was 883,700 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 5.37% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.94% [3]. - China's natural rubber production in June was 103,200 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 7.05% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.37% [3]. - China's natural rubber consumption in June was 619,500 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.45% and a year-on-year increase of 3.80% [3]. - The import volume of natural rubber in China for June was 436,300 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.24% but a year-on-year increase of 29.43% [3]. Shipping Index Trends - The Baltic Sea freight index (FBX) averaged 2531.25 points in July 2025, indicating a month-on-month decrease of 25.46% and a year-on-year decrease of 50.19% [4]. - The CCFI index for the East Coast of the U.S. was 1247.30, showing a year-on-year decrease of 30.43% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.31% [4]. - The CCFI index for the West Coast of the U.S. was 983.60, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.68% and a month-on-month decrease of 14.44% [4].