再现！光伏组件缺货涨价

Core Insights - The photovoltaic (PV) module market is experiencing shortages and price increases again in August, following a "rush to install" earlier in the year due to regulatory changes [1] - The current price for first-tier module companies has reached 0.7 yuan/W, up from approximately 0.66 yuan/W at the end of June, with shortages primarily in the 710W large-format modules [1][2] - The recent price hikes are attributed to rising upstream polysilicon costs and limited production capacity from certain manufacturers, rather than a significant increase in downstream demand [1][3] Market Dynamics - During the "rush to install" period in May, the installed capacity of PV modules reached 92.92 GW, a year-on-year increase of 388% and a month-on-month increase of 105.5% [2] - The price of modules peaked at around 0.78 yuan/W in early April, leading to situations where payments were made but goods were not delivered due to manufacturers holding back stock for higher future prices [2] - Current production plans indicate that only certain models (625W/630W/615W/640W) are available in stock, while models like 715W/720W have longer lead times [2] Cost Trends - The cost of polysilicon, a key raw material for PV modules, has risen from 36,000 yuan/ton to 48,000 yuan/ton since early July, leading to an increase in production costs for PV modules from approximately 0.626 yuan/W to 0.679 yuan/W [3] Customer Behavior - In a low terminal demand environment, customers willing to accept price increases are primarily those with project deadlines, such as state-owned enterprises and distributed project developers [4] - The market sentiment among terminal enterprises is mixed, with some projects accepting higher prices while others are seeing difficulties in securing high-priced orders, leading to some companies starting to sell at lower prices [4]