杨德龙：七月国民经济平稳增长 牛市趋势越来越明显

Economic Overview - In July, China's economy showed steady progress with improved economic data, driven by effective policies to stabilize growth [1][4] - The industrial production, consumption, and service sectors all experienced certain improvements, contributing to a stronger capital market [1][4] Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month [1] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors performed particularly well, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.4% and 9.3%, respectively [1] Service Sector - The service sector production index increased by 5.8% year-on-year in July, with notable growth in information transmission, software, and financial services [2] - Social retail sales reached 38,780 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with online retail sales growing by 9.2% [2] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment rose by 1.6% year-on-year, with a 5.3% increase when excluding real estate development investment [3] - Real estate development investment continued to decline, dropping by 12% year-on-year in July [3] Trade Performance - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports grew by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 8% and imports by 4.81% [3] - The trade structure is improving, with a notable upgrade in the value-added of export products [3] Consumer Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a need for measures to boost consumption and investment [3] Capital Market Dynamics - The capital market is showing signs of strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,700 points, indicating increasing investor confidence [1][4] - New stock accounts opened in July approached 2 million, and trading volume has significantly increased, reflecting a growing willingness of outside funds to enter the market [4] Investment Opportunities - Compared to the U.S. stock market, which is at historical highs, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks remain below historical average valuations, presenting a favorable investment opportunity [5] - Investors are encouraged to consider quality stocks or funds to capitalize on the current market conditions for wealth growth [5]