全球苯酚和丙酮市场下半年看跌

Group 1 - The global phenol and acetone market is facing dual pressures of weak demand and oversupply, with participants pessimistic about recovery prospects until the second half of 2025 [2] - In Europe, market participants have little hope for demand recovery for the remainder of the year due to oversupply, with Orlen's decision to halt production unlikely to alleviate the situation [2] - European phenol and acetone prices have remained weak, with July 29 assessments showing acetone at €600 per ton (down 33.3% since January) and phenol at €771 per ton (down 26% since January) [2] Group 2 - In the U.S., market participants expect stability in phenol and acetone markets by year-end, but low housing starts and renovation projects due to inflationary pressures will suppress demand [3] - U.S. acetone demand has stagnated since 2023, with expectations of continued weakness until 2025, and the market may face oversupply requiring increased exports [3] - As of July 22, U.S. Gulf acetone was priced at $992 per ton (down 4% since January) and phenol at $1,046 per ton (down 8% since January) [3] Group 3 - Asia is expected to continue increasing production capacity, with supply to India rising in the second half of the year, despite slow growth in solvent demand [4] - Indian phenol prices have dropped to near two-year lows, and acetone prices have reached 31-month lows due to increased supply from Asian suppliers [4] - The Asian phenol market may experience intensified oversupply due to seasonal weakening and ongoing capacity expansion, with producers facing further margin pressure [4]