8月份LPG到岸价小幅回升 国内化工需求相对强劲托底国际市场

Core Viewpoint - The international LPG market has experienced a period of weak decline, but domestic chemical demand, particularly for propane and butane, has provided support, stabilizing prices in the range of $555-565 per ton [1][3]. Group 1: Domestic Chemical Demand - Strong domestic chemical demand has significantly supported the LPG market, with notable increases in the deep processing demand for propane and butane [3]. - The average operating rate of domestic PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) units rose above 70% in July and further increased to over 73% in early August, indicating a recovery in propane demand [3]. - The profitability of domestic PDH units remains favorable, encouraging higher operational rates [3]. Group 2: Butane Demand - Butane demand has also been robust, playing a crucial role in supporting the international market, with increased imports alleviating supply pressures and even causing shortages in some regions [5]. - The operating rate of domestic isobutane dehydrogenation units has rebounded to over 73% in August after hitting a low in May, supported by nearly one million tons of new capacity from companies like Kaiyi and Yuxin [5]. - In July, the loading volume of domestic butane pressure vessels reached 29,600 tons, accounting for 14.08% of the total loading volume, reflecting a significant increase of over 10 percentage points from June [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The strong chemical demand for propane and butane has not only supported the international LPG market but also alleviated domestic sales pressure, with a noticeable slowdown in the decline of residential gas prices in August [7]. - Future demand for propane remains strong, driven by PDH and ethylene units, while butane demand is expected to remain high, although the profitability of isobutane dehydrogenation may negatively impact future demand [7]. - As summer transitions to fall, there is potential for a rebound in combustion demand, which could further boost LPG demand [7].