智通财经网·2025-08-15 07:00Core Viewpoint - The organic silicon industry in China is expected to continue capturing overseas market share due to cost advantages, with both domestic and international demand anticipated to resonate positively, indicating a turning point in the industry with an improved supply-demand structure and significant upward elasticity [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Organic silicon materials possess excellent properties and are widely used across various sectors of the national economy, including construction, power, electronics, automotive, textiles, and personal care [1]. - The organic silicon industry chain consists of upstream metal silicon, midstream monomers and intermediates, and downstream products such as silicone rubber, silicone oil, and silicone resin, which combine organic and inorganic characteristics [1]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Domestic consumption of organic silicon accounts for approximately 60% of the global total, with projected apparent consumption of DMC in China reaching 1.82 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21%, and a growth rate of 24% expected in the first half of 2025 [1]. - The demand structure for organic silicon is shifting, with the real estate sector's share of downstream demand declining to below 25%, while demand from the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors remains strong, supporting high domestic consumption levels [1]. Group 3: Supply and Capacity - Overseas production capacity for organic silicon DMC has been decreasing due to cost and environmental constraints, with current total capacity at 800,000 tons per year, and further reductions are anticipated [2]. - Domestic production capacity is expected to peak at 3.44 million tons by the end of 2024, nearly doubling since 2020, with the current expansion cycle concluding and a high industry concentration (CR5 at 62%) [2]. Group 4: Profitability and Market Outlook - The cost differences among manufacturers for organic silicon intermediates are minimal, leading to a prolonged period of losses for the overall sector, with DMC prices and price differentials at 1% and 6%, respectively, indicating a strong demand for profitability recovery [2]. - The supply-demand balance is improving, with domestic operating rates projected to rise from 67% in 2024 to 76% and 83% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, driven by strong demand from photovoltaic and new energy vehicle sectors [2].