下游表现较为坚挺 锌价运行偏弱但下方空间有限

Market Review - The main contract for zinc futures, ZN2509, experienced weak fluctuations during the day and remained stable at night, while London zinc prices increased [1] Fundamental Summary - As of August 14, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warrants at 45,425 tons and canceled warrants at 32,025 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; total zinc inventory stood at 77,450 tons, down by 1,025 tons [2] - Nexa Resources announced partial temporary production stoppages at its Cerro Pasco complex due to illegal blockades by a minority of the San Juan de Milpo community, affecting annual zinc production of 63,000 to 74,000 tons and lead production of 34,000 to 39,000 tons, with current production guidance unchanged [2] - The mainstream transaction price for Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,475 to 22,570 yuan/ton, with a discount of 30-20 yuan/ton to the ZN2509 contract [2] Institutional Perspectives - Jinrui Futures noted that market expectations for supply reaching production capacity have been fully priced in, while downstream demand remains relatively strong; thus, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a recommendation to remain cautious [3] - Guangzhou Futures highlighted that the US PPI data exceeded expectations, and many Federal Reserve officials opposed rate cuts in September, leading to a weaker dollar index and renewed pressure on non-ferrous metals; despite disturbances in overseas mining, the overall investment trend remains upward, while domestic mines are resuming production seasonally [3] - The report indicated that domestic zinc market conditions show strong supply but weak demand, with increasing inventories during the traditional off-season; LME canceled warrants remain relatively high, and overseas inventories continue to decrease; thus, zinc prices are expected to run weakly within a reference range of 22,000 to 23,000 yuan/ton [3]