机构预测：车企OTA升级策略正发生显著转变，2030年车联网渗透率或达85%

Group 1 - The global connected vehicle market is expected to grow to 77 million units by 2030, with a penetration rate of 85%, and 95% of new connected vehicles will have OTA upgrade capabilities focusing on cockpit and intelligent driving [1] - The OTA upgrade strategy of automakers is shifting from rapid iteration to a more stable pace, with some companies maintaining a bi-weekly software version upgrade frequency until the second half of 2024, but a noticeable slowdown in upgrade frequency is anticipated by mid-2025 [1] - Automakers are now required to integrate software versions and submit complete software packages and functional descriptions to regulatory authorities after each OTA upgrade, indicating a trend towards industry maturity [1] Group 2 - The three-electric system is transitioning from single performance competition to system integration capabilities, with Chinese manufacturers moving towards high integration, evolving from a 3-in-1 system to a 12-in-1 system, which enhances power density and efficiency while reducing manufacturing and maintenance costs [2] - The Chinese automotive market is undergoing a deep adjustment, with a significant decline in overall capacity due to the exit of many new car manufacturers, although capacity utilization is expected to return to a healthy level of 80% with the growth of export markets and recovery in domestic consumption [2] - Chinese automakers are facing a unique global opportunity window, where breakthroughs in electric drive and charging integration, localized overseas production, and differentiated cockpit services will determine their position in the next round of global automotive industry division [3]