Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-15 10:38Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares opened lower but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new closing high [1] - The leading consumption ETF (159928) rose by 0.12%, with a total trading volume exceeding 430 million yuan, and net subscriptions of 20 million units for three consecutive days [1] - As of August 14, the latest scale of the consumption ETF (159928) exceeded 13.5 billion yuan, significantly leading its peers [1] Group 2: Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.7% year-on-year in July, slowing down by 1.1 percentage points from June [5] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, also down by 1.1 percentage points from June [5] - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [6] Group 3: Consumer Trends - The consumption recovery cycle driven by "old-for-new" trade-in programs peaked in May, with retail sales growth reaching 6.4%, followed by declines in June and July [6] - The main factor affecting retail sales in July was the decline in goods retail growth, which fell from 5.3% in June to 4.0% in July [6] - The average growth rate of "old-for-new" subsidized products dropped from 17.5% to 12.7%, while non-subsidized products saw an increase from 1.9% to 4.2% [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite potential pressures in the fourth quarter, there are three supporting factors for consumer growth in the second half of the year: gradual recovery in dining growth, the release of childbirth subsidies, and consumer loan interest subsidies [8] - The expected release of approximately 90 billion yuan in childbirth subsidies could boost retail sales growth by about 0.3 percentage points in the second half of the year [8] - Recent consumer policies, including personal consumption loan interest subsidies, are anticipated to support domestic consumption and stimulate consumer credit [10] Group 5: Investment Insights - The consumption ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 68% of its weight [11] - Key stocks include leading liquor brands and major agricultural producers, indicating a strong focus on essential consumer goods [11] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption 50 ETF (159268) is highlighted as an efficient investment option for the new consumption sector, supporting T+0 trading and not occupying QDII quotas [12]